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I think what maybe seems not obvious amidst the hype is that there is a hell of a lot of …

… I think what maybe seems not obvious amidst the hype is that there is a hell of a lot of engineering left to do. The fact that you can squash the weights of a neural net down to 3 bits per param and it still works -- is evidence that we have quite a way to go with maturing this technology. Multimodality, improvements to the UX of it, the human-computer interface part of it. Those are fundamental tech things, but they are foremost engineering problems. Getting latency down. Getting efficiency up. Designing the experience, then building it out. 25 years ago, early tech demos on the internet were promising that everyone would do their shopping, entertainment, socializing, etc... online. Breathless hype. 5 years after that, the whole thing crashed, but it never went away. People just needed time to figure out how to use it and what it was useful for, and discover its limitations. 10 years after that, engineering efforts were systematized and applied against the difficult problems that still remained. And now: look at where we are. It just took time.

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SO

Like another comment mentioned, sigmoid curves [1] are ubiquitous with neural network systems. Neural network systems can be intoxicating because it's so "easy" (relatively speaking) to go from nothing to 80% in extremely short periods of time. And so it seems completely obvious that hitting 100% is imminent. Yet it turns out that each percent afterwards starts coming exponentially more slowly, and we tend to just bump into seemingly impassable asymptotes far from where we'd like to be. ~8 years ago when self driving technology was all the rage and every major company was getting on board with ever more impressive technological demos, it seemed entirely reasonable to expect that we'd all be in a world of complete self driving imminently. I remember mocking somebody online around the time who was pursuing a class C/commercial trucking license. Yet now a decade later, there are more trucke…

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AC

I don't think he's saying that AGI is impossible — almost noone (nowadays) would suggest that it's anything but an engineering challenge. The argument is simply one of scale, i.e. how long that engineering challenge will take to solve. Some people are suggesting on the order of years. I think they're suggesting it'll be closer to decades, if that.

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SA

Waymo cars are highly geofenced in areas with good weather and good quality roads. They only just (in January) gained the capability to drive on freeways. Let me know when you can get a Waymo to drive you from New York to Montreal in winter.

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