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Lessons learnedExperience excerpt · English

> That estimate turned out to be wildly incorrect

> That estimate turned out to be wildly incorrect. The project ended up taking a year longer than I’d originally projected. The reasons are complex; the short version is that I made some major technical assumptions that turned out to be wildly incorrect. Several large architectural changes I’d thought we could avoid turned out to be unavoidable, adding all sorts of dependencies and additional work to the project. Honestly, I can't help but judge either the company or the author. What kind of project ends up taking more than a year to complete? Wait... it's "a year longer than I’d originally projected." So what was the original estimate? Six months? It doesn't matter how complex it was. If it is taking that long, the project should have been a smaller piece of what was planned. The author talks about re-estimating, communicating early, and owning up to your mistakes, which is all fine advice, but what if the project itself was too ambitious, and too broad to have a reasonable estimate?

Original discussionEstimating Software Projects: So you messed up. Now what? (2021)86 source comments · at import
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I think some HN users have only ever worked on web or mobile software and have no concept of what happens in the broader software industry. For example, on the F-35 (JSF) program they took about 10 years to ship the first real production release with multiple large schedule slips along the way. And that was despite deferring a lot of the planned scope.

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"Honestly, I can't help but judge either the company or the author." Jacob includes that story under the heading "Don’t do what I did".

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